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model evals

WNBA Evals

Historical persisted slate projections joined to completed boxscores. Player stat lanes use RMSE; win probability uses Brier score.

date range

5/8/26-7/22/26

70 evaluated slates

player eval rows

5,752

any player metric

FPM rows

3,600

5+ actual minutes

team eval rows

404

game outcomes

Minutes

RMSE

6.30

latest 5.85

5,752 player rows

May 8, 2026Jul 22, 2026

Fantasy Points

RMSE

8.02

latest 7.22

5,752 player rows

May 8, 2026Jul 22, 2026

FPM

RMSE

0.363

latest 0.348 (players with >= 5 minutes played)

3,600 played-player rows

May 8, 2026Jul 22, 2026

Points

RMSE

5.18

latest 4.84

5,752 player rows

May 8, 2026Jul 22, 2026

Rebounds

RMSE

2.06

latest 1.84

5,752 player rows

May 8, 2026Jul 22, 2026

Assists

RMSE

1.49

latest 1.47

5,043 player rows

May 15, 2026Jul 22, 2026

Steals

RMSE

0.78

latest 0.68

3,498 player rows

Jun 6, 2026Jul 22, 2026

Blocks

RMSE

0.57

latest 0.66

3,498 player rows

Jun 6, 2026Jul 22, 2026

Win Probability

Brier

0.247

latest 0.131

404 team rows

May 8, 2026Jul 22, 2026

WNBA slate history

From May 8, 2026 through Jul 22, 2026, with each lane evaluated when its persisted projections exist.

Date	Players	FPM Rows	Teams	Min	FPTS	FPM	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Win Prob
2026-07-22	111	74	8	5.85	7.22	0.348	4.84	1.84	1.47	0.68	0.66	0.131
2026-07-20	110	73	8	5.51	7.26	0.315	4.85	2.05	1.70	0.64	0.65	0.344
2026-07-19	84	51	6	4.93	5.80	0.320	3.97	1.92	1.42	0.67	0.58	0.113
2026-07-18	82	57	6	5.25	6.51	0.342	3.68	2.00	1.43	0.72	0.63	0.155
2026-07-17	109	68	8	4.68	7.10	0.384	4.93	1.75	1.40	0.77	0.45	0.198
2026-07-16	55	37	4	9.83	10.73	0.382	5.71	2.41	1.74	0.73	0.67	0.475
2026-07-15	82	52	6	6.52	7.89	0.414	4.70	1.85	1.35	0.91	0.49	0.184
2026-07-14	55	38	4	4.10	6.76	0.333	4.73	1.71	1.53	0.74	0.55	0.224
2026-07-13	53	33	4	4.63	7.61	0.362	5.50	1.86	1.36	0.74	0.48	0.081
2026-07-12	115	72	8	5.66	6.62	0.318	4.79	2.15	1.30	0.73	0.34	0.271
2026-07-11	84	54	6	5.28	7.30	0.496	6.73	2.38	1.96	0.79	0.45	0.328
2026-07-10	93	54	6	4.68	6.75	0.367	5.01	1.51	1.52	0.70	0.49	0.173
2026-07-09	82	56	6	6.36	7.40	0.327	4.41	1.75	1.55	0.76	0.46	0.215
2026-07-08	83	54	6	6.77	8.36	0.382	5.22	2.12	1.31	0.75	0.59	0.226
2026-07-07	61	35	4	5.13	7.07	0.392	3.86	1.93	1.76	0.69	0.64	0.383
2026-07-06	84	56	6	5.19	7.33	0.320	4.80	1.77	1.24	0.83	0.46	0.333
2026-07-05	55	36	4	4.81	5.36	0.373	2.90	2.10	0.97	0.57	0.52	0.249
2026-07-04	55	38	4	5.67	6.24	0.349	4.28	2.16	1.01	1.03	0.50	0.356
2026-07-03	54	33	4	6.24	7.78	0.270	5.24	1.83	1.38	0.82	0.61	0.241
2026-07-02	87	56	6	7.18	8.30	0.342	4.53	2.26	1.54	0.69	0.52	0.227
2026-06-30	27	17	2	6.10	8.85	0.362	6.10	1.82	1.18	0.78	0.38	0.326
2026-06-28	112	73	8	7.49	8.32	0.306	5.32	1.98	1.53	0.91	0.55	0.189
2026-06-27	80	53	6	5.11	6.58	0.410	4.06	1.88	1.50	0.69	0.54	0.240
2026-06-26	84	55	6	5.71	7.51	0.343	5.02	1.76	1.48	0.93	0.90	0.255
2026-06-25	83	53	6	5.22	8.93	0.428	6.45	2.11	1.77	0.73	0.44	0.318
2026-06-24	112	72	8	6.02	8.00	0.384	4.54	2.15	1.49	0.56	0.56	0.300
2026-06-23	27	17	2	6.16	7.43	0.284	4.28	2.41	1.07	0.74	0.76	0.311
2026-06-22	111	71	8	5.82	8.74	0.347	4.94	2.19	1.79	0.76	0.61	0.145
2026-06-21	81	53	6	5.31	7.43	0.368	4.36	1.38	1.41	0.81	0.54	0.274
2026-06-20	84	51	6	5.43	7.47	0.352	4.27	2.27	1.64	0.65	0.60	0.148
2026-06-19	84	51	6	4.88	7.30	0.296	5.37	1.70	1.46	0.76	0.60	0.280
2026-06-18	26	17	2	4.59	4.61	0.220	4.22	1.34	1.03	0.92	0.48	0.253
2026-06-17	170	108	12	5.99	7.79	0.310	4.90	1.75	1.42	0.88	0.50	0.219
2026-06-16	27	18	2	8.74	10.73	0.450	6.25	2.57	1.88	0.92	0.50	0.090
2026-06-15	82	54	6	5.99	8.89	0.380	4.47	1.85	1.69	0.78	0.61	0.222
2026-06-14	54	35	4	5.33	7.79	0.371	8.11	2.44	1.76	0.97	1.04	0.168
2026-06-13	113	69	8	4.53	6.99	0.317	5.14	1.68	1.49	0.75	0.63	0.288
2026-06-12	55	33	4	5.19	6.94	0.269	4.75	1.74	1.30	0.90	0.50	0.278
2026-06-11	110	73	8	5.66	8.65	0.411	5.77	2.21	1.56	0.71	0.54	0.191
2026-06-10	55	35	4	4.92	7.56	0.307	5.11	2.05	1.64	0.89	0.58	0.194
2026-06-09	82	49	6	3.94	5.86	0.300	4.16	1.90	1.45	0.75	0.49	0.189
2026-06-08	83	59	6	5.86	7.23	0.351	4.09	1.83	1.49	0.76	0.52	0.159
2026-06-07	55	36	4	4.36	6.69	0.296	3.79	2.34	1.33	0.62	0.50	0.114
2026-06-06	107	72	8	5.68	6.40	0.330	4.27	2.16	1.21	0.94	0.51	0.172
2026-06-05	86	52	6	4.89	7.47	0.417	4.63	1.93	1.63	N/A	N/A	0.312
2026-06-04	52	35	4	5.43	7.83	0.359	4.48	1.71	1.37	N/A	N/A	0.120
2026-06-03	57	33	4	5.57	6.41	0.255	3.89	2.13	1.04	N/A	N/A	0.304
2026-06-02	109	72	8	4.91	7.78	0.385	4.68	2.01	1.45	N/A	N/A	0.201
2026-06-01	56	37	4	7.04	8.61	0.374	4.77	2.20	1.70	N/A	N/A	0.313
2026-05-31	26	19	2	5.62	7.89	0.381	4.29	2.00	1.26	N/A	N/A	0.334
2026-05-30	83	57	6	5.88	8.97	0.338	4.91	2.03	1.51	N/A	N/A	0.306
2026-05-29	111	69	8	4.73	6.65	0.345	3.67	1.85	1.41	N/A	N/A	0.244
2026-05-28	53	38	4	7.14	9.06	0.370	4.91	2.37	1.37	N/A	N/A	0.181
2026-05-27	140	95	10	6.31	8.61	0.394	5.09	2.26	1.33	N/A	N/A	0.440
2026-05-25	59	40	4	7.95	8.16	0.396	5.12	1.77	1.61	N/A	N/A	0.144
2026-05-24	84	34	6	11.89	11.83	0.357	7.39	2.35	1.75	N/A	N/A	0.235
2026-05-23	80	51	6	7.61	9.61	0.368	5.62	2.25	1.84	N/A	N/A	0.261
2026-05-22	82	54	6	5.39	8.81	0.320	5.28	1.90	1.39	N/A	N/A	0.170
2026-05-21	83	53	6	5.82	7.93	0.448	6.27	1.97	1.24	N/A	N/A	0.336
2026-05-20	85	55	6	8.05	10.11	0.437	5.54	2.32	1.66	N/A	N/A	0.323
2026-05-19	28	16	2	4.81	6.30	0.349	4.68	1.73	0.82	N/A	N/A	0.235
2026-05-18	58	38	4	6.65	8.94	0.429	5.41	2.11	1.30	N/A	N/A	0.155
2026-05-17	104	69	8	6.02	8.72	0.371	5.42	2.03	1.34	N/A	N/A	0.329
2026-05-15	109	73	8	7.19	9.18	0.348	7.96	2.14	1.61	N/A	N/A	0.277
2026-05-14	57	36	4	7.21	9.27	0.417	6.34	1.70	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.075
2026-05-13	108	72	8	7.29	9.84	0.378	5.91	2.62	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.309
2026-05-12	84	52	6	6.74	8.87	0.385	6.64	2.65	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.277
2026-05-10	112	69	8	7.80	8.49	0.300	6.29	2.38	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.131
2026-05-09	204	72	8	8.20	8.76	0.427	5.49	2.27	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.454
2026-05-08	144	58	6	9.39	8.83	0.435	5.37	2.32	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.381