oakleaf aiagentic basketball intelligence
Home/WNBA Evals

model evals

WNBA Evals

Historical persisted slate projections joined to completed boxscores. Player stat lanes use RMSE; win probability uses Brier score.

date range

5/8/26-6/11/26

32 evaluated slates

player eval rows

2,746

any player metric

FPM rows

1,673

5+ actual minutes

team eval rows

188

game outcomes

Minutes

RMSE

6.83

latest 5.66

2,746 player rows

12.857.922.99May 8, 2026: RMSE 9.39May 9, 2026: RMSE 8.20May 10, 2026: RMSE 7.80May 12, 2026: RMSE 6.74May 13, 2026: RMSE 7.29May 14, 2026: RMSE 7.21May 15, 2026: RMSE 7.19May 17, 2026: RMSE 6.02May 18, 2026: RMSE 6.65May 19, 2026: RMSE 4.81May 20, 2026: RMSE 8.05May 21, 2026: RMSE 5.82May 22, 2026: RMSE 5.39May 23, 2026: RMSE 7.61May 24, 2026: RMSE 11.89May 25, 2026: RMSE 7.95May 27, 2026: RMSE 6.31May 28, 2026: RMSE 7.14May 29, 2026: RMSE 4.73May 30, 2026: RMSE 5.88May 31, 2026: RMSE 5.62Jun 1, 2026: RMSE 7.04Jun 2, 2026: RMSE 4.91Jun 3, 2026: RMSE 5.57Jun 4, 2026: RMSE 5.43Jun 5, 2026: RMSE 4.89Jun 6, 2026: RMSE 5.68Jun 7, 2026: RMSE 4.36Jun 8, 2026: RMSE 5.86Jun 9, 2026: RMSE 3.94Jun 10, 2026: RMSE 4.92Jun 11, 2026: RMSE 5.66
May 8, 2026Jun 11, 2026

Fantasy Points

RMSE

8.48

latest 8.65

2,746 player rows

12.558.855.14May 8, 2026: RMSE 8.83May 9, 2026: RMSE 8.76May 10, 2026: RMSE 8.49May 12, 2026: RMSE 8.87May 13, 2026: RMSE 9.84May 14, 2026: RMSE 9.27May 15, 2026: RMSE 9.18May 17, 2026: RMSE 8.72May 18, 2026: RMSE 8.94May 19, 2026: RMSE 6.30May 20, 2026: RMSE 10.11May 21, 2026: RMSE 7.93May 22, 2026: RMSE 8.81May 23, 2026: RMSE 9.61May 24, 2026: RMSE 11.83May 25, 2026: RMSE 8.16May 27, 2026: RMSE 8.61May 28, 2026: RMSE 9.06May 29, 2026: RMSE 6.65May 30, 2026: RMSE 8.97May 31, 2026: RMSE 7.89Jun 1, 2026: RMSE 8.61Jun 2, 2026: RMSE 7.78Jun 3, 2026: RMSE 6.41Jun 4, 2026: RMSE 7.83Jun 5, 2026: RMSE 7.47Jun 6, 2026: RMSE 6.40Jun 7, 2026: RMSE 6.69Jun 8, 2026: RMSE 7.23Jun 9, 2026: RMSE 5.86Jun 10, 2026: RMSE 7.56Jun 11, 2026: RMSE 8.65
May 8, 2026Jun 11, 2026

FPM

RMSE

0.374

latest 0.411 (players with >= 5 minutes played)

1,673 played-player rows

0.4720.3520.232May 8, 2026: RMSE 0.435May 9, 2026: RMSE 0.427May 10, 2026: RMSE 0.300May 12, 2026: RMSE 0.385May 13, 2026: RMSE 0.378May 14, 2026: RMSE 0.417May 15, 2026: RMSE 0.348May 17, 2026: RMSE 0.371May 18, 2026: RMSE 0.429May 19, 2026: RMSE 0.349May 20, 2026: RMSE 0.437May 21, 2026: RMSE 0.448May 22, 2026: RMSE 0.320May 23, 2026: RMSE 0.368May 24, 2026: RMSE 0.357May 25, 2026: RMSE 0.396May 27, 2026: RMSE 0.394May 28, 2026: RMSE 0.370May 29, 2026: RMSE 0.345May 30, 2026: RMSE 0.338May 31, 2026: RMSE 0.381Jun 1, 2026: RMSE 0.374Jun 2, 2026: RMSE 0.385Jun 3, 2026: RMSE 0.255Jun 4, 2026: RMSE 0.359Jun 5, 2026: RMSE 0.417Jun 6, 2026: RMSE 0.330Jun 7, 2026: RMSE 0.296Jun 8, 2026: RMSE 0.351Jun 9, 2026: RMSE 0.300Jun 10, 2026: RMSE 0.307Jun 11, 2026: RMSE 0.411
May 8, 2026Jun 11, 2026

Points

RMSE

5.41

latest 5.77

2,746 player rows

8.475.823.16May 8, 2026: RMSE 5.37May 9, 2026: RMSE 5.49May 10, 2026: RMSE 6.29May 12, 2026: RMSE 6.64May 13, 2026: RMSE 5.91May 14, 2026: RMSE 6.34May 15, 2026: RMSE 7.96May 17, 2026: RMSE 5.42May 18, 2026: RMSE 5.41May 19, 2026: RMSE 4.68May 20, 2026: RMSE 5.54May 21, 2026: RMSE 6.27May 22, 2026: RMSE 5.28May 23, 2026: RMSE 5.62May 24, 2026: RMSE 7.39May 25, 2026: RMSE 5.12May 27, 2026: RMSE 5.09May 28, 2026: RMSE 4.91May 29, 2026: RMSE 3.67May 30, 2026: RMSE 4.91May 31, 2026: RMSE 4.29Jun 1, 2026: RMSE 4.77Jun 2, 2026: RMSE 4.68Jun 3, 2026: RMSE 3.89Jun 4, 2026: RMSE 4.48Jun 5, 2026: RMSE 4.63Jun 6, 2026: RMSE 4.27Jun 7, 2026: RMSE 3.79Jun 8, 2026: RMSE 4.09Jun 9, 2026: RMSE 4.16Jun 10, 2026: RMSE 5.11Jun 11, 2026: RMSE 5.77
May 8, 2026Jun 11, 2026

Rebounds

RMSE

2.16

latest 2.21

2,746 player rows

2.772.181.58May 8, 2026: RMSE 2.32May 9, 2026: RMSE 2.27May 10, 2026: RMSE 2.38May 12, 2026: RMSE 2.65May 13, 2026: RMSE 2.62May 14, 2026: RMSE 1.70May 15, 2026: RMSE 2.14May 17, 2026: RMSE 2.03May 18, 2026: RMSE 2.11May 19, 2026: RMSE 1.73May 20, 2026: RMSE 2.32May 21, 2026: RMSE 1.97May 22, 2026: RMSE 1.90May 23, 2026: RMSE 2.25May 24, 2026: RMSE 2.35May 25, 2026: RMSE 1.77May 27, 2026: RMSE 2.26May 28, 2026: RMSE 2.37May 29, 2026: RMSE 1.85May 30, 2026: RMSE 2.03May 31, 2026: RMSE 2.00Jun 1, 2026: RMSE 2.20Jun 2, 2026: RMSE 2.01Jun 3, 2026: RMSE 2.13Jun 4, 2026: RMSE 1.71Jun 5, 2026: RMSE 1.93Jun 6, 2026: RMSE 2.16Jun 7, 2026: RMSE 2.34Jun 8, 2026: RMSE 1.83Jun 9, 2026: RMSE 1.90Jun 10, 2026: RMSE 2.05Jun 11, 2026: RMSE 2.21
May 8, 2026Jun 11, 2026

Assists

RMSE

1.47

latest 1.56

2,037 player rows

1.961.330.70May 15, 2026: RMSE 1.61May 17, 2026: RMSE 1.34May 18, 2026: RMSE 1.30May 19, 2026: RMSE 0.82May 20, 2026: RMSE 1.66May 21, 2026: RMSE 1.24May 22, 2026: RMSE 1.39May 23, 2026: RMSE 1.84May 24, 2026: RMSE 1.75May 25, 2026: RMSE 1.61May 27, 2026: RMSE 1.33May 28, 2026: RMSE 1.37May 29, 2026: RMSE 1.41May 30, 2026: RMSE 1.51May 31, 2026: RMSE 1.26Jun 1, 2026: RMSE 1.70Jun 2, 2026: RMSE 1.45Jun 3, 2026: RMSE 1.04Jun 4, 2026: RMSE 1.37Jun 5, 2026: RMSE 1.63Jun 6, 2026: RMSE 1.21Jun 7, 2026: RMSE 1.33Jun 8, 2026: RMSE 1.49Jun 9, 2026: RMSE 1.45Jun 10, 2026: RMSE 1.64Jun 11, 2026: RMSE 1.56
May 15, 2026Jun 11, 2026

Steals

RMSE

0.79

latest 0.71

492 player rows

0.980.780.58Jun 6, 2026: RMSE 0.94Jun 7, 2026: RMSE 0.62Jun 8, 2026: RMSE 0.76Jun 9, 2026: RMSE 0.75Jun 10, 2026: RMSE 0.89Jun 11, 2026: RMSE 0.71
Jun 6, 2026Jun 11, 2026

Blocks

RMSE

0.52

latest 0.54

492 player rows

0.590.530.48Jun 6, 2026: RMSE 0.51Jun 7, 2026: RMSE 0.50Jun 8, 2026: RMSE 0.52Jun 9, 2026: RMSE 0.49Jun 10, 2026: RMSE 0.58Jun 11, 2026: RMSE 0.54
Jun 6, 2026Jun 11, 2026

Win Probability

Brier

0.256

latest 0.191

188 team rows

0.4990.2650.030May 8, 2026: Brier 0.381May 9, 2026: Brier 0.454May 10, 2026: Brier 0.131May 12, 2026: Brier 0.277May 13, 2026: Brier 0.309May 14, 2026: Brier 0.075May 15, 2026: Brier 0.277May 17, 2026: Brier 0.329May 18, 2026: Brier 0.155May 19, 2026: Brier 0.235May 20, 2026: Brier 0.323May 21, 2026: Brier 0.336May 22, 2026: Brier 0.170May 23, 2026: Brier 0.261May 24, 2026: Brier 0.235May 25, 2026: Brier 0.144May 27, 2026: Brier 0.440May 28, 2026: Brier 0.181May 29, 2026: Brier 0.244May 30, 2026: Brier 0.306May 31, 2026: Brier 0.334Jun 1, 2026: Brier 0.313Jun 2, 2026: Brier 0.201Jun 3, 2026: Brier 0.304Jun 4, 2026: Brier 0.120Jun 5, 2026: Brier 0.312Jun 6, 2026: Brier 0.172Jun 7, 2026: Brier 0.114Jun 8, 2026: Brier 0.159Jun 9, 2026: Brier 0.189Jun 10, 2026: Brier 0.194Jun 11, 2026: Brier 0.191
May 8, 2026Jun 11, 2026

WNBA slate history

From May 8, 2026 through Jun 11, 2026, with each lane evaluated when its persisted projections exist.

DatePlayersFPM RowsTeamsMinFPTSFPMPtsRebAstStlBlkWin Prob
2026-06-111107385.668.650.4115.772.211.560.710.540.191
2026-06-10553544.927.560.3075.112.051.640.890.580.194
2026-06-09824963.945.860.3004.161.901.450.750.490.189
2026-06-08835965.867.230.3514.091.831.490.760.520.159
2026-06-07553644.366.690.2963.792.341.330.620.500.114
2026-06-061077285.686.400.3304.272.161.210.940.510.172
2026-06-05865264.897.470.4174.631.931.63N/AN/A0.312
2026-06-04523545.437.830.3594.481.711.37N/AN/A0.120
2026-06-03573345.576.410.2553.892.131.04N/AN/A0.304
2026-06-021097284.917.780.3854.682.011.45N/AN/A0.201
2026-06-01563747.048.610.3744.772.201.70N/AN/A0.313
2026-05-31261925.627.890.3814.292.001.26N/AN/A0.334
2026-05-30835765.888.970.3384.912.031.51N/AN/A0.306
2026-05-291116984.736.650.3453.671.851.41N/AN/A0.244
2026-05-28533847.149.060.3704.912.371.37N/AN/A0.181
2026-05-2714095106.318.610.3945.092.261.33N/AN/A0.440
2026-05-25594047.958.160.3965.121.771.61N/AN/A0.144
2026-05-248434611.8911.830.3577.392.351.75N/AN/A0.235
2026-05-23805167.619.610.3685.622.251.84N/AN/A0.261
2026-05-22825465.398.810.3205.281.901.39N/AN/A0.170
2026-05-21835365.827.930.4486.271.971.24N/AN/A0.336
2026-05-20855568.0510.110.4375.542.321.66N/AN/A0.323
2026-05-19281624.816.300.3494.681.730.82N/AN/A0.235
2026-05-18583846.658.940.4295.412.111.30N/AN/A0.155
2026-05-171046986.028.720.3715.422.031.34N/AN/A0.329
2026-05-151097387.199.180.3487.962.141.61N/AN/A0.277
2026-05-14573647.219.270.4176.341.70N/AN/AN/A0.075
2026-05-131087287.299.840.3785.912.62N/AN/AN/A0.309
2026-05-12845266.748.870.3856.642.65N/AN/AN/A0.277
2026-05-101126987.808.490.3006.292.38N/AN/AN/A0.131
2026-05-092047288.208.760.4275.492.27N/AN/AN/A0.454
2026-05-081445869.398.830.4355.372.32N/AN/AN/A0.381